Understanding the energy price cap predictions.
Getting to grips with your energy bills can be tricky, and with prices constantly changing, it's natural to wonder what's coming next. We want to help you get a clearer picture of how future energy prices are predicted. Read on to learn about our latests price cap predictions, how the experts make their calculations, and more.
You can also learn about the current energy price cap on our dedicated page.
Our energy price cap predictions.
We’re committed to giving you the information you need, when you need it, especially when it comes to making informed decisions about your energy use. So, after looking at the facts and crunching the numbers, we’ve predicted that the October price cap will be £1,732.1 This is a increase of £12 compared to the previous July price cap.
1 Please note that this figure is our guidance and isn’t guaranteed.
The energy price cap forecast.
E.ON Next price cap predictions for January 2025 to January 2026.
| Date | Price cap prediction | Change from previous price cap | Confidence level |
|---|---|---|---|
January 2025 | £1,738 | +£21 | Confirmed |
April 2025 | £1,849 | +£111 | Confirmed |
July 2025 | £1,720 | -£129 | Confirmed |
October 2025 | £1,732 | +£12 | Low |
January 2026 | £1,744 | +£12 | Very low |
Forecast updated on 14 July 2025.
What does this mean for you?
Although future energy market prices aren’t set in stone, we’re making it easier than ever for you to manage your energy with confidence. Simply go to your online account to check out our latest fixed tariff deals and take control of your energy.
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Ofgem has just announced their new price cap of £1,720 from 1 July 2025.
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What is the energy price cap?
The government introduced the energy price cap in 2019 to protect customers on energy tariffs with standard variable rates. The energy regulator Ofgem calculates and sets the energy price cap to reflect industry costs. They review the price cap every three months. The price cap level is set for customers in England, Wales and Scotland. Retail energy prices in Northern Ireland are not subject to a cap.
It’s important to point out that the price cap is not an actual 'cap' on your total bill. The more energy you use, the more you’ll still pay. Learn more about the energy price cap.
What influences the energy price cap?
When deciding how the price cap should be set, Ofgem's decision is heavily influenced by several key factors.
Wholesale energy prices.
This is one of the biggest drivers. The cost that suppliers pay for gas and electricity on the wholesale market directly impacts what you pay for your home.
Network costs.
Unfortunately, there are costs associated with building, maintaining, and upgrading the infrastructure that transports energy to your home.
Operating costs.
There are also costs for suppliers to run their businesses, including things like customer service and billing.
Government schemes.
Certain government policies aimed at protecting consumers and achieving environmental goals are funded through our energy bills.
What drives energy prices up or down?
When it comes to what actually drives those energy prices higher or lower, there are some key factors at play.
Global gas prices.
International situations, like geopolitical tensions or disruptions to supply chains, can cause significant and rapid price swings in global energy markets.
Supply and demand.
If there's high demand for energy (for example, during a cold winter) but limited supply, prices tend to go up. Conversely, if supply is abundant and demand is low, prices might fall.
Renewable energy.
Then, there’s the increasing role of weather dependent renewable energy sources like wind and solar. On a windy or sunny day, when renewables generate lots of power, wholesale electricity prices can dip. But when the opposite is true, our reliance on gas-fired power stations can push prices up.
Infrastructure around the country.
Think about the costs associated with building, maintaining, and upgrading our energy infrastructure. That’s all the power plants, gas pipelines, and electricity networks. They’re also factored into our energy bills.
Government and regulator decisions.
Ofgem plays a crucial part in setting the price cap and ensuring fairness. Government policies relating to energy, climate change, and consumer protection also have an impact on the costs that suppliers can pass on to customers.
Why do price cap predictions matter?
Understanding price cap predictions can help you in several ways, the first being budgeting and planning your household finances. Knowing about potential shifts in energy costs can help you manage your money more effectively. It can also help you understand the underlying factors when you hear about energy prices in the news. Finally, while predictions shouldn't be the only reason for changing your energy habits, they could help encourage you to consider ways of becoming more energy efficient.
Get advice on what to do with your tariff if energy prices are rising and or on the fall.
How do experts make their price cap predictions?
Assessing all the influencing factors we've just discussed, energy analysts and financial experts come up with their predictions. Then, they use complex models and historical data to make an educated guess about how these factors will likely impact wholesale energy costs in the coming months. From there, they apply Ofgem's price cap methodology (which accounts for wholesale costs, network costs, operating costs, and policy costs) to try and predict what the next price cap level might be.
These are just predictions – and that’s important to understand! The outcomes aren’t guaranteed. Remember, the energy market is highly changeable and can be impacted by unforeseen events. Perhaps it’s best to think of it like a forecast, just like the weather.
It's also important to distinguish between these analysts and Ofgem. As we mentioned, Ofgem is the official regulator for Great Britain. While they are transparent about the factors they consider and the methodology for setting the cap, they don't typically issue public predictions in the same way that independent analysts do. Their role is to set the actual cap, not to forecast it for others. Browse Ofgem’s official website to find more news and information on the price cap.
Your FAQs about energy price cap predictions.
You’ll find more useful information about the price cap and predictions in our FAQs. You can also stay up to date by following us on WhatsApp.
What are energy price cap predictions and why are they made?
How accurate are energy price cap predictions?
What factors influence how energy price cap predictions are made?
What is Ofgem's role in relation to energy price cap predictions?
Should I rely on energy price cap predictions for budgeting?
Our predicted October 2025 price cap increase is based on dual fuel customers, paying by Direct Debit, who have medium energy usage as defined by Ofgem’s Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCV), (2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas per year). This is calculated using the Ofgem methodology to combine market prices and our forecast of other costs. Our current predictions as of 14 July 2025 is that the October Ofgem price cap is predicted to increase to £1,732. Our prediction will change based on the changes in the cost of wholesale energy for future periods. The projection should be used as a guide of the trajectory of the price cap change. Potential Ofgem reforms could change the accuracy of the predictions vs what they actually set.